Wednesday, February 27, 2008 | Cengiz ÇANDAR
Militarily speaking, the difference between launching a 'security operation' and becoming an 'occupying force' is as thin as a stick
The land operation launched by the Turkish military into northern Iraq is obviously not a “picnic,” as the death toll reveals. The involvement of special units makes loss of life more meaningful and the magnitude of the incursion brings questions to mind about the length and scope of it.
We hear a quite strong voice rising in Turkey and saying “Let's form a buffer zone; let's settle in northern Iraq.” Some “experts” point out that the encounters would continue a couple of weeks and that we should remain in Iraq by the end of April.
If the scope of the operation is not clearly defined, Turkey could face a risk of losing stability in the southeast, in addition to being stuck in the north of Iraq. Militarily speaking, the difference between a “security operation” and becoming an “occupying force” is as thin as a stick. Serious deviations could be seen in calculations made at the table and the necessities surface in the battlefield.
It is no secret that the political-military headquarters of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) are located in the Kandil mountain range together with a significant part of its armed forced. The land operation, on the other hand, is taking place in a relatively remote area from Kandil.Almost everyone knows that a frontal fight by regular forces against an irregular one is impossible. And by looking at the map, we see that the operation plans to bloc the routes of PKK infiltration to Turkey and to ruin the organization's logistic infrastructure in the region. However, one realizes that the PKK would relocate in the areas evacuated after the “mission is accomplished.”In this case, will the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) remain in the Iraqi side of the border? If so, for how long? Is this possible “politically?” These are valid questions, but are not yet answered.This is a “United States-approved” incursion by all means. A military operation “despite the U.S.” would not be possible. But we have to realize that the U.S. “green light” is for a limited distance and period. Iraqi Kurds have already officially begun to accuse the U.S. The statement issued by the U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates who is expected in Ankara next week and who dramatically fine tuned the U.S.-Turkey policy by giving support to Turkey against the PKK, despite “isolating Iran,” is more critical.Gates clearly announced that the incursion cannot alone resolve the “PKK issue.” And he directly answered to a related question with “No.” Then the defense secretary said:
“I think all our experience in Iraq and Afghanistan shows us that while dealing with a terrorist problem does require security operations, it also requires economic and political initiatives. Military efforts must be supplemented by other political and economic outreach to Kurds. After a certain point people become inured to military attacks and if you do not blend them with these kinds of non-military initiatives, then at a certain point the military efforts become less and less effective.”
The short translation of this is that Turkey is expected to come up with “political projects” to resolve the “Kurdish issue.” As for the on-going operation, Gates said that he wants the incursion to “come to a quick end.”
If the operation lasts longer, the European Union will raise objections. Besides the central Baghdad administration, which was criticized previously by the regional Kurdish administration in northern Iraq as an excuse to make a flimsy objection to the incursion, will assert that the “sovereignty of Iraq is being violated” and speak out louder.
If the Turkish military remains in Iraq for a longer period of time, we would be in trouble, not only militarily but also politically and diplomatically. We cannot not say yet that Turkey has already stuck, or is about to get stuck, in the northern Iraq quagmire but this will happen, if the Turkish troops fight against the Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga units next to the PKK.
Until now the operation region consists of relatively isolated areas rarely populated with the peshmerga units. The PKK wants to pull Turkish troops inside the region and make them fight against the Iraqi Kurdish forces. The PKK leaders already claim that the Iraqi President Jalal Talabani invited the Turkish land operation. By doing so, they are trying to form public opinion in favor of the PKK and forcing Iraqi Kurdish leaders to resist against Turkey.If the field of operation is stretched to the south, to inside regions, this would have an impact on all balances in Iraq and more importantly could have political outcomes. The structure in Iraq is quite fragile. Deployment of the peshmerga forces in Baghdad, Mosoul and traditional Shiite-Sunni conflict areas played a role in relatively decreasing acts of violence taking place in the middle parts of the country. If Kurds pull out these forces from where they are deployed now and move them up to the north, the security balance in central Iraq, which is hung by a thread already, will collapse. And the U.S. does not have the capacity to fix this at the moment.
Consequently the U.S. “green light” given to Turkish forces would transform into a “thick red line” in case of a possible fight between the Turkish military and the peshmerga.
The decision mechanism in Ankara and politics is to show some talent to make this “fine tuning.” How can we ensure that this is done already, or would be done? We have to wait and see the developments in the coming days to have a full-fledged answer to this question.